Practical Guidance on Calculating Sampling Error in Election Polls
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Disentangling Bias and Variance in Election Polls
It is well known among researchers and practitioners that election polls su↵er from a variety of sampling and non-sampling errors, often collectively referred to as total survey error. Reported margins of error typically only capture sampling variability, and in particular, generally ignore non-sampling errors in defining the target population (e.g., errors due to uncertainty in who will vote)....
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Polls are used by politicians, voters, and businesspeople alike to form expectations over political outcomes. In an electoral system with ‘pork’ at the national level, local economic prospects will be a direct function of political support. Because every poll comes with its margin of error, we can exploit the error in sub-national polls to test for whether forward-looking investment in the econ...
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A wide range of potentially useful data are available for election forecasting: the results of previous elections, a multitude of preelection polls, and predictors such as measures of national and statewide economic performance. How accurate are different forecasts? We estimate predictive uncertainty via analysis of data collected from past elections (actual outcomes, preelection polls, and mod...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Survey Practice
سال: 2013
ISSN: 2168-0094
DOI: 10.29115/sp-2013-0006